samidexson: Rosenthal: Biggest surprises of the season

Passing offenses boosted by amazing TEs, while 49ers, Ravens sport fantastic defenses

Chris Graythen / Getty Images

At this rate, New Orleans' Jimmy Graham will produce one of the best years by a tight end in NFL history.

OPINION

updated 3:58 p.m. ET Oct. 20, 2011

Gregg Rosenthal

We know what teams to watch for now. We know what teams don?t matter.

The first six weeks of the NFL season have set the table for what should be a predictably unpredictable playoff push. Before that starts let?s take a quick look at some of the big storylines to emerge so far:

Insane offensive numbers
400 yards is the new 300 yards, if that makes any sense. Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Tony Romo are all on pace to break Dan Marino?s single season passing yardage mark of 5,084. A rookie ? Cam Newton ? is barely off the pace.

Total passing yard numbers are up roughly 10 percent, a huge jump for one season. Expectations for what?s a great passing effort should be reset.

Conventional wisdom said defenses would be ahead of offenses after the lockout. But conventional wisdom is conventionally unwise.

It?s hard to pin down one reason why it?s so much easier to throw the ball now, other than the slow accumulation of passer-friendly rules. The offensive coaches are ahead of the defensive guys. With more specialization and spread passing attacks than ever before, the offensive coaches are ahead of the defenses.

The year of the tight end
No position has evolved more in this pass-happy era than tight end. Defensive coordinators used to welcome having a cornerback or safety on tight ends. The new crop of players can beat any defender, anytime.

Jimmy Graham of the Saints leads the young tight end revolution. He?s a former basketball player who coach Sean Payton can use in a variety of ways to create mismatches. Defenses have no answer for his mix of athleticism and size. It?s early, but Graham on pace for more than 1,000 yards and one of the best seasons of all time. Thirteen tight ends are on pace for more than 700 yards, which is ridiculous.

Bill Belichick?s Patriots offense is built around their young tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. They can be used in a power formation or line up as receivers. Versatility is the key in a gameplan league. The defense never knows what the tight end will do, and where he?ll be.

Regressing young quarterbacks
The quarterback elite is firmly established ? Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees are playing like immortals.

But another wave of young quarterbacks has quietly been struggling this year despite the crazy offensive numbers.

The Bucs? Josh Freeman has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. The Jets have put the training wheels back on Mark Sanchez. (To extend the analogy, the Jets are also running alongside Sanchez?s bike telling him to go straight.)

The Rams? Sam Bradford looks more like a rookie under coordinator Josh McDaniels than he did last year as a rookie. Kevin Kolb hasn?t lived up to his contract in Arizona. Only Kerry Collins has been more inefficient per-pass this year than Colt McCoy of the Browns.

Matt Ryan may be the biggest head-scratcher. His accuracy and decision-making have faltered without great pass protection.

There has been a lot of great quarterback play this year, but many ?next generation? signal callers have taken a step back.

Searching for the six
Each year, six playoff teams on average don?t make it back to the postseason. So who will it be this time?

The Colts don?t have a prayer. The Seahawks, Chiefs, and Bears all look mediocre and destined to fall short. That?s four.

Will the Eagles, Falcons, or Jets get in? The Jets don?t do anything well on offense and have a tough schedule coming up. Everything about the Falcons this year is ordinary. I?d bet against all three, but the Eagles may have the best chance of this group because 10 wins could be enough in the NFC East.

Perhaps seven teams won?t make it back this year.

Difference-making defenses
In this era of offensive insanity, a quality defense may be worth more than ever. Getting stops is a scarce commodity in 2011, and one defense in each conference stands out.

The Ravens have their best defense in at least five years. They are giving up 14.2 points-per-game, which is two points better than the rest of the league. Credit the talent and scheme.

New defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano brought the blitz-happy approach that Rex Ryan used to run in Baltimore. They can afford to pull that off because the foundation of the defense is so solid.

No team can match the combination of Haloti Ngata and Terrence Cody up front. Those two create havoc and keep Ray Lewis clean; Lewis is enjoying yet another renaissance. A truly healthy Ed Reed has solidified the secondary and the young cornerbacks ? especially Lardarius Webb ? have played better than expected.

In the NFC, no defense has dominated like the 49ers. They are second in points allowed-per-game, largely because of the best linebacker group in football. Rookie Aldon Smith is already a dangerous pass rusher. Navorro Bowman and Patrick Willis are both playing at a Pro Bowl level inside.

The Ravens and 49ers are both 5-1 without racking up big passing numbers. It?s good to be a little different in this copycat league.

The Bay Area revival
Northern California fans haven?t had a lot to cheer about for the last decade. Suddenly they have two legitimate playoff-caliber teams.

It would be stunning if the 49ers don?t make the playoffs. At 5-1 with a soft NFC West schedule, San Francisco has a realistic chance to get a playoff bye. Jim Harbaugh?s decision to bring back Alex Smith and re-engineer the career of the former No. 1 overall pick stands out as one of the year's best stories. (Even if the defense is carrying the team.)

Recent Raiders teams had the talent to beat quality competition, but the immaturity to lose to anyone. Under Hue Jackson, Oakland has been among the league's most consistent teams.

You know what you are going to get with Oakland: A smashmouth running game and a defensive line that creates havoc. Trading for Carson Palmer was the ultimate all-in move. I have doubts Palmer will be much better than Jason Campbell, but Palmer doesn?t have to be for the Raiders to make the playoffs. The AFC West race with San Diego should be a lot of fun.

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